gold price trend

2011年10月28日 星期五

factors affecting the gold price



Generally speaking, factors affecting the price of gold can be divided into "political side" and "economic side" of two categories.
Several main factors summarized as follows:
Political aspects
Political factors: 1991.8.19 Soviet gold in 1 hour $ 10 rise; Gulf War broke out in 1992, gold prices stood 400 U.S. dollars / ounce less than; September 11, 2001, the price of gold soaring $ 17 (from 276 ~ $ 293), an increase of 6.2%. Other situations, such as Israelis and Palestinians, the situation in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea are in a precarious situation, the international situation as the main cause of price rise in recent years, predictable gold hedging will be further strengthened.

Economic sideU.S. dollar: an increased risk of U.S. debt, foreign debt accounted for 46% of gross domestic product, economic structural problems have become increasingly prominent. The basic relationship between gold and the dollar relative to U.S. dollar fluctuations often affects the price of gold.
Energy activity: fluctuations in oil prices affect the world economy, especially the United States. U.S. economic trends affecting the U.S. asset quality, rise and fall along with U.S., also contributed to the gold price fluctuations. In addition, higher oil prices caused by inflation concerns, prompting U.S. interest rates, although this benefit dollars, but if the long-term high inflation, high interest rates coupled with high oil prices and the adverse effects on the economy, will deepen the economic stagnation of inflation concerns, which makes gold a store of value even greater.
Central bank activity: large gold by central banks, according to the World Gold Council announced the world's total gold reserves of 32,650 tons, about 13 times the world annual production of gold, so the sale of gold by central banks has become the trend of the main factors affecting the price of gold. With the dollar falling, the European Central Bank selling of gold reserves at the same time, central banks in Asia and the Middle East, but in order to adjust the foreign exchange reserves to absorb the gold structure, reducing the proportion of U.S. dollar assets, which is one of the reasons to support gold prices.
Technology Industry: Gold and strong as ductility, plasticity, electronics, electroplating, medical and other annual consumption of about 60 tons, about 17% of total consumption. So the more developed industries, high demand, the price of gold rose.
Consumer factors: the rise in the global economy, rising incomes, demand and supply of gold itself makes the price of gold in 2005, after increasing the dollar off the hook, correlation decreased. Changes in consumer factors can influence short-term trend of gold, so the main consideration for seasonal effects, such as the annual Golden Week, the Spring Festival holiday, and the peak of the Indian marriage in October, buying gold demand.
Global gold supply and demand: the current state of the world's gold is still in short supply, is likely to further exacerbate the gap between supply and demand, gold prices are basically caused by fundamental factors. The report notes that in 2004 the first time the world's gold supply and demand in short supply. South Africa's high-quality gold resources depleted, it is estimated that only a small amount of gold in South Africa can continue mining until 2025, gold production growth rate will be reduced by one third than at present.
reasons  affecting the gold price

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