gold market long-term trend

 gold market long-term  trend
To understand the long-term part of the gold market, first know that the world has been mined gold in the end? According to GFMS gold research units, as of last year, the total area has been mined about 166,600 tons of gold, how to imagine this figure? Yangtian Li, vice manager of the Bank of Taiwan to describe precious metals, if all the 16 tons of gold concentration, the actual formation of a 20 meter cube (dimensions are 20 meters), if the general floor height is 3 meters, the world's gold pile up, about the length and breadth are 7 storeys high capacity.

If a considerable proportion of the gold to the market while at the same, of course, will collapse in the price of gold, is to observe the following parts of the six long-term focus.

Focus on a site about the stability of the gold distribution and

At present, all the distribution ratio of gold stocks, in order of gold ornaments, private investment, the central bank, other casting (industrial), other. Which more than half the proportion of gold ornaments, not only refers to the general family-owned jewelry gold, gilded temples or deities, ancient coins, gold utensils and so classified in the "decorated gold" under; followed by the "private investment" , then the cache, including bars, sovereign fund has a position, such as physical gold ETF.

Understand the stock distribution, the more important is to understand the stability of their respective owners. Yangtian Li said that if ordering by stability, high to low were: official (central bank), religion, containers, cache and traditional gold, other casting (industrial), epidemic gold, ETF and other investment sites.

Focus on two flagship ETF holdings whether the observed sharp decline

Since the stability of the worst parts of the ETF's investment, the need to prioritize observation. Gold soared in recent years, investment in parts, especially the holding spot gold ETF, while the amount of pro-Top 1 of ETF gold comes SPDR, SPDR Gold therefore part of the increase or decrease, as observed long-term loose parts is one of the indicators. Yangtian Li said, SPDR if one day by up to 10 tons, and for some time, is the warning.

August, SPDR had dropped a total of four days of nearly 50 tons of gold was still soaring, but the sharp drop from the SPDR site warning of view, should not be catching high; the price of gold plunged in September , SPDR parts to reduce the limited, but later began to rise, then do not be scrapping low. Yang Tianli remind people it is easy because the decline in investment expansion in disarray, should be evaluated SPDR holdings and other parts of the objective data before making decisions.

Focus on three central banks in emerging long line of investors continued to buy

Although parts of the central bank only 17% of total inventory, but the number of central bank gold release easily dozens of tons, hundreds of tons, the need for close observation. Into a country, keeping up the property (foreign exchange reserves) is the central bank should, fear of property devaluation, the central bank to buy gold is not to make a fortune, the biggest purpose is to hedge. Since buying gold to diversify risk, not to make short-term spreads, so, after the central bank to buy is usually not easily released, and became the highest stability, long line of investors in the gold market.

Long-term investment in gold is still the major central banks in emerging countries, as the world's three major currencies: dollar, euro, Japanese yen, has sovereign credit risk, but why central banks have foreign exchange reserves, largely these three currency assets, seeing three major currencies have become a "platoon vote" concerns, the current proportion of the limited savings bank, especially in recent years earned a large number of foreign central banks in emerging countries, continued to buy gold, there is no sign of loosening.

4 focus deeper debt crisis gold more firmly hold the European Central Bank

While central banks in emerging countries continue to buy, but most pro-gold, and the European Central Bank owed a huge debt, debt payments will not be released? Yang Tianli to Greece, for example, the proportion of gold 76% of its foreign exchange, at first glance a high proportion of the actual number of only 112 tons (late 2010), even if all the cash, only to raise more than 60 billion U.S. dollars, 500 billion for more than dollars of foreign debt, is totally inadequate.

Look at the "pig of the five countries in Europe," the biggest unexploded ordnance Italy, close to 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars foreign debt, Central Bank of the gold, although the amount of 2452 tons, the market value of more than 1300 translation billion, even if all sold, only 5% more than offset The huge debt. The problem is to sell gold stocks, national sovereignty of these countries for credit will be more loss of confidence, so Yang Tianli that deeper debt crisis in Europe, the European Central Bank should be more afraid to sell gold big hands.
 gold market long-term  trend

gold price is sufficient optimism

Because central bank of all the world are crazy in bargain-hunting gold moves, let the gold price is sufficient optimism. The end of September 2011, the international gold price fell to $ 1,543 / ounce range, then the central bank of Russia,

Thailand and other countries are massive bargain-hunting gold. the World Gold Council (WGC) released the third quarter report shows a total of more than three quarters of net central bank buying 148.4 tons of gold,
compared with 66.5 tons in the second quarter more than doubled the amount of net buying, the highest statistics in 2002 the sale of gold by central banks since the highest value. A variety of factors led to the price of gold was bottom after rising again into the channel.
gold price is sufficient optimism

Gold Trades Strategy

Gold Trades Strategy

From a technical analysis point of view, the price of gold should be another sprint up the opportunity to challenge a recent high of $ 1,762. But the news of the international price of gold on the basic of good painting, and even after the rise in national stock market has reached an important resistance. Therefore, gold prices rose to 1760 levels if the trend suggested a go, dropped back to 1700 to see whether the mark, and to 1763.5 as a stop loss.

Later if the market conditions for the support below the 1732/30 position, rebound short of attention or just stop breaking 1740, 1720 primary open target price. Break below this, only saw the 1700 off. Conversely, if the gold market rose above 1762/1765 resistance softened considering the purchase, stroke rose to 1780 levels.

Strong demand, boosting gold prices reaching a record high

Deepening debt crisis in Europe, the United States to continue the quantitative easing policy, the situation in East and North Africa turbulence, energy price shocks up, slowing economic growth in emerging countries such as environment, highlighting the gold store of value. As an important hedging tool for international capital, gold position this year continuation of last year, sharply rising prices, the market demand for gold investment demand in particular is growing.



The uncertainty due to global inflation and worsening debt crisis in Europe, the U.S. dollar long-term weakening trend, increasing gold's safe-haven demand, the global gold investment enthusiasm. World Gold Council, the latest released in November gold demand trends report that gold demand in the third quarter of this year reached 1053.9 tons, an increase of 6%, worth $ 57.7 billion, setting a record high. Market demand for gold mainly from investments, gold, central bank reserves, four aspects of industrial demand. In the third quarter of 468.1 tons of gold investment demand, an increase of 33%. Central banks continue to increase their gold, gold in its reserves in the proportion of the total rising in the third quarter, the global central banks bought a net 148.4 tons of gold, of which a large range of developing countries, central banks buy gold, while the European central banks significantly reduce the the amount of gold sold, mainly to support the future of gold from central bank buying. The third quarter of industrial gold demand reached 120.2 tons, maintaining the level last year.
Strong demand, boosting gold prices reaching a record high. As of mid-November, this year's $ 1,560 an ounce gold price, average price of $ 1,224 over last year has risen 28 percent, on several occasions during the break through $ 1,800 an ounce mark. The first quarter of this year, gold prices rose 2.4% last year, London March 31, the price of gold reached $ 1,439 an ounce this year, start at the beginning of the long-term gold price of gold come true upward trend. The second quarter of the price of gold is steadily rising, the average price of $ 1,506.13 an ounce, growth of 8.6%, after hitting a high of $ 1,552 an ounce. The third quarter, the price of gold is surging, the average price per ounce $ 1,702 quarterly, an increase of 39%, September 5, 6, London, gold reached $ 1,895 an ounce, a record high. First quarter gold price fell from a high of September, then all the way to recovery, great prices peak and then washed trend

Gold price

According to the Securities Times, December 2, the world's central banks join forces to rescue the market, lower interest rates to stimulate the overall rise in the stock market and commodities, gold gains significantly. Analysts expect the euro zone sovereign debt issues and the United States next year will continue to bring commodity prices and stock market risk, and gold should be the sovereign debt risk from the benefit, a risk hedging tool, the performance will be better than other assets.
 Overnight international gold standard by the Chinese central bank reduced the Fed and other central banks join forces to rescue the market six and many other unexpected sharp rise in positive stimulation, the highest intraday rose to $ 1,750, up $ 31.7. To continue yesterday's Asian session, higher volatility, intraday $ 1,758.
 Affected by this Thursday, the Shanghai gold futures gapped, the major 1206 contract rose 4.51 yuan, transactions and positions were reduced. Early yesterday morning, gold futures positions have declined sharply, turnover increased dramatically, indicating funds have short stop at the beginning of the opening as well, but still no large-scale admission of new evidence of long funds.
 Galaxy futures analyst Zhang Yingying that the global central bank's move should be a dialectical perspective, on the one hand, the global central banks join forces to rescue the market to ease the market sentiment on the other hand, the central bank rescue group shows there are serious downside risks to the economy. Moreover, the current global financial system, the biggest risk is the European sovereign bond markets, central banks inject liquidity group, is still not fundamentally solve the problem of the euro zone sovereign debt, medium and long term, the rescue effect is doubtful.

Spot gold closed $ 1,745.80

Wednesday Spot gold closed $ 1,745.80 / ounce, up $ 31.41, or 1.83%; Spot silver closed $ 32.78 / ounce, up $ 0.87, or 2.83%. Yesterday, the European debt crisis continued to affect the economic collapse of the moment, the world's six major central banks finally forced to take action to reduce China's central bank unexpectedly kept precision, six joint central bank dollar swap rates lower and extend the period of market liquidity, market drying up of liquidity concerns ease, more than expected U.S. ADP employment, risk appetite, weighed on the dollar lower, gold and silver following the surge in risky assets, the euro zone finance ministers reached a consensus on EFSF expansion, good news was short-term effects, long-term close attention to the European debt problems in a specific decision to implement
 Spot gold closed $ 1,745.80

gold price

 gold  price 
New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) 2012  February gold futures closed up on November 30, or $ 31.4 1.8% at $ 1,750.3 an ounce as the dollar fell 0.8% effect, March silver futures closed up 2.7% as per $ 32.804 an ounce. January platinum futures rose 1.3% as U.S. $ 1,560.8 an ounce and March palladium futures rose 4.85% closing a $ 612.6 an ounce. Monthly price of gold rose 1.45%, silver platinum and palladium fell 4.5%, 2.9% and 5.9% this year, gold and silver were up 23% and 6%, platinum and palladium were down 12% and 23.7%.
The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD.US) 11  30 1.21 metric tons of gold holdings increased as 1,298.53 metric tons, the cumulative increase in November, 54.98 tonnes. Largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Index Fund (SLV.US), 11  30 silver holdings flat at 9,627.88 metric tons, a cumulative reduction of 135.68 tonnes in November.
 gold  price 

Gold price

gold price
Network will enable the introduction of temporary swap lines to provide other central banks the Bank of England sterling, if necessary, and provide liquidity to the Bank of England, should be necessary, the Japanese yen, euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar (U.S. $ in addition to existing operations).

First, this should encourage home only in an unstable state of the financial system is in now. In essence, this is a re-run agency in 2008 has become skeptical about lending to each other. Therefore, the central bank's step, and now other people's habits, or can not provide "liquidity." To read more FAQ issues here.
In essence, this is just another iteration of the central bank's only tool - printing money.
However, this should be another than how quickly and "blue" concerted action to remind them. You go to sleep, all is well, then you wake up only to see the world is your money the central bank devalued again.
In the grand scheme of things, this is just a small version of the final "grand concerted action" looks like. Imagine the news before going to bed and get up, the International Monetary Fund, to take concerted action, and the revaluation of the SDR currency is now worth half of what is worthy of yesterday.
This is the future, today's action, should wake up those who protect their wealth continues to reduce the call.
gold price

The central bank has agreed to reduce the pricing of 50 basis points in the existing temporary dollar liquidity swap arrangements

readers will all the news today, the world's central banks to take "concerted action" was not surprised. Coordinated action, of course, a euphemism for printing, the press is a good way to spike gold £ 1750 for $ 1110.
24-hour gold pounds:
24 hours gold dollars:
You can see from the above chart, the trend line in 2011 is still good.
So, what is "concerted action"? Release from the Board of Education:
Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank announced today that concerted action to improve their ability to provide liquidity to the global financial system support. These actions are intended to ease the pressure on financial markets, thereby reducing the supply of homes and businesses and other strains of credit to help promote economic activity.
The central bank has agreed to reduce the pricing of 50 basis points in the existing temporary dollar liquidity swap arrangements, the new interest rate, the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to from the December 5, 2011 for all operations. The authorized currency swap arrangement has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank will continue to tender for three months, until further notice.
As an emergency measure, the central bank also agreed to establish a temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements, in each national currency in any jurisdiction that can provide liquidity conditions, the warrants market. Currently, there is no need to provide their national currencies other than U.S. dollars of liquidity, but the central bank to determine prudent to make the necessary arrangements to enable the liquidity support operations can be put in place quickly should the need arise. Swap lines until February 1, 2013.