gold market long-term trend

 gold market long-term  trend
To understand the long-term part of the gold market, first know that the world has been mined gold in the end? According to GFMS gold research units, as of last year, the total area has been mined about 166,600 tons of gold, how to imagine this figure? Yangtian Li, vice manager of the Bank of Taiwan to describe precious metals, if all the 16 tons of gold concentration, the actual formation of a 20 meter cube (dimensions are 20 meters), if the general floor height is 3 meters, the world's gold pile up, about the length and breadth are 7 storeys high capacity.

If a considerable proportion of the gold to the market while at the same, of course, will collapse in the price of gold, is to observe the following parts of the six long-term focus.

Focus on a site about the stability of the gold distribution and

At present, all the distribution ratio of gold stocks, in order of gold ornaments, private investment, the central bank, other casting (industrial), other. Which more than half the proportion of gold ornaments, not only refers to the general family-owned jewelry gold, gilded temples or deities, ancient coins, gold utensils and so classified in the "decorated gold" under; followed by the "private investment" , then the cache, including bars, sovereign fund has a position, such as physical gold ETF.

Understand the stock distribution, the more important is to understand the stability of their respective owners. Yangtian Li said that if ordering by stability, high to low were: official (central bank), religion, containers, cache and traditional gold, other casting (industrial), epidemic gold, ETF and other investment sites.

Focus on two flagship ETF holdings whether the observed sharp decline

Since the stability of the worst parts of the ETF's investment, the need to prioritize observation. Gold soared in recent years, investment in parts, especially the holding spot gold ETF, while the amount of pro-Top 1 of ETF gold comes SPDR, SPDR Gold therefore part of the increase or decrease, as observed long-term loose parts is one of the indicators. Yangtian Li said, SPDR if one day by up to 10 tons, and for some time, is the warning.

August, SPDR had dropped a total of four days of nearly 50 tons of gold was still soaring, but the sharp drop from the SPDR site warning of view, should not be catching high; the price of gold plunged in September , SPDR parts to reduce the limited, but later began to rise, then do not be scrapping low. Yang Tianli remind people it is easy because the decline in investment expansion in disarray, should be evaluated SPDR holdings and other parts of the objective data before making decisions.

Focus on three central banks in emerging long line of investors continued to buy

Although parts of the central bank only 17% of total inventory, but the number of central bank gold release easily dozens of tons, hundreds of tons, the need for close observation. Into a country, keeping up the property (foreign exchange reserves) is the central bank should, fear of property devaluation, the central bank to buy gold is not to make a fortune, the biggest purpose is to hedge. Since buying gold to diversify risk, not to make short-term spreads, so, after the central bank to buy is usually not easily released, and became the highest stability, long line of investors in the gold market.

Long-term investment in gold is still the major central banks in emerging countries, as the world's three major currencies: dollar, euro, Japanese yen, has sovereign credit risk, but why central banks have foreign exchange reserves, largely these three currency assets, seeing three major currencies have become a "platoon vote" concerns, the current proportion of the limited savings bank, especially in recent years earned a large number of foreign central banks in emerging countries, continued to buy gold, there is no sign of loosening.

4 focus deeper debt crisis gold more firmly hold the European Central Bank

While central banks in emerging countries continue to buy, but most pro-gold, and the European Central Bank owed a huge debt, debt payments will not be released? Yang Tianli to Greece, for example, the proportion of gold 76% of its foreign exchange, at first glance a high proportion of the actual number of only 112 tons (late 2010), even if all the cash, only to raise more than 60 billion U.S. dollars, 500 billion for more than dollars of foreign debt, is totally inadequate.

Look at the "pig of the five countries in Europe," the biggest unexploded ordnance Italy, close to 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars foreign debt, Central Bank of the gold, although the amount of 2452 tons, the market value of more than 1300 translation billion, even if all sold, only 5% more than offset The huge debt. The problem is to sell gold stocks, national sovereignty of these countries for credit will be more loss of confidence, so Yang Tianli that deeper debt crisis in Europe, the European Central Bank should be more afraid to sell gold big hands.
 gold market long-term  trend